Building scenarios

Test a decision against your live forecast with the simulator, and save it as a scenario.

2 min read

A simulation answers a question once. A scenario keeps the answer, so you can come back to it, compare it against what actually happened, and hold several possible futures side by side.

Building one

1.Start from your current forecast. The baseline is always your live numbers, so a scenario measures a decision rather than a rebuild.

2.Add the decisions. A hire, a price change, an ad budget shift, a restock — as many as belong together.

3.Compare against the baseline. The gap between the two paths, and the date it opens, is the answer.

4.Save it. A saved scenario keeps its decisions, so it updates as your actuals do.

Scenarios worth keeping

Three tend to earn their place:

•Plan — what you currently expect and are budgeting against.

•Downside — revenue misses by a realistic margin. The useful output is the date, not the number: when do you have to act?

•Upside — growth lands. Usually reveals a cash problem rather than solving one, because growth is funded before it pays.

Why a saved scenario beats a spreadsheet copy

A copied spreadsheet is a snapshot: correct on the day it was made and stale a week later. A saved scenario is a set of decisions layered on live actuals, so as real numbers arrive the comparison stays honest — you can see whether the downside case is becoming the base case while there is still time to do something about it.

Saved scenarios come with the Advanced Simulator extension. The built-in simulator models a decision without saving it.

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