Financial forecasting, made for founders
Runway, burn, cashflow, and the decisions behind them. Practical playbooks for ecommerce, dropshipping, and digital founders, no finance degree required.
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Every article
Playbooks, explainers and teardowns, newest first.
9 min read
What an order really costs: getting contribution margin right in an online shop
Product cost is the part everyone counts. Shipping, payment fees, returns, discounts and storage are the part that decides whether growth builds cash or burns it. Here is the whole stack, line by line, and how to model each one.
7 min read
Cash-based or model-based planning: the difference that decides how good your forecast is
Every forecasting tool is one of two kinds: it reads what already happened to your bank account, or it calculates what will happen from the drivers of your business. Here is what separates them, why it decides how useful your forecast is, and how to build the second kind.
5 min read
Cash flow vs profit vs bank balance: the difference that catches founders out
Profit, cash flow and your bank balance are three different numbers — and confusing them is how profitable businesses run out of money. Here's the difference, with a worked Excel example where the same month is both profitable and cash-negative.
6 min read
Scaling ad budget without going broke: the payback check
More ad spend only helps if each euro comes back fast enough. Here's the simple payback check that keeps scaling inside your margin — plus the advanced way to model budget and revenue moving together.
3 min read
How much inventory can you actually afford to reorder?
Restocking is where e-commerce cash goes to hide. Here's a simple way to work out how much stock you can afford to reorder without starving the rest of the business — and how to keep the answer current.
10 min read
Cash-flow forecast for your Shopify store
The four numbers that decide whether a Shopify store builds cash or bleeds it, where to read each one, and the five steps that turn them into a 12-month forecast you can keep current in twenty minutes a month.
7 min read
Cash-flow planning in Excel: the guide and a free template
A free Excel and Google Sheets template with the formulas already wired up, and the step-by-step guide to what every row is doing — so you can use it as it is, or build your own from the same logic.