Glossary · Revenue
Average order value (AOV)
Average order value is your total revenue divided by the number of orders that produced it, over the same period. It answers one question: what is a typical order worth?
Formula
AOV = revenue ÷ orders
Worked example
A Shopify store, last 30 days
- Total revenue
- €48,000
- Orders
- 960
- Average order value
- €50.00
€48,000 across 960 orders is a €50 average order. Lift it to €55 with a bundle and the same 960 orders bring in €52,800 — a 10% revenue increase with no extra traffic and no extra ad spend.
Average order value (AOV) is how much a customer spends, on average, in a single order. It is one of the few numbers that lifts revenue without a single extra visitor — nudge it up with a bundle or an upsell and every future order is worth a little more.
In Shopify you don't even need the division: Analytics → Reports → Average order value reports it directly. The formula matters the moment you want to forecast it rather than just read last month's.
Why AOV matters for cash flow
Revenue is never one number — it is built from drivers, and AOV is one of the two that matter most: revenue = orders × AOV. That means AOV is a lever you can pull independently of traffic. A free-shipping threshold, a bundle, a well-placed upsell — each raises AOV, and the higher order value flows straight to the top line.
Lifting a €50 AOV to €55 is a 10% revenue increase on the same order count — no extra ad spend, no extra visitors. That is why AOV sits next to orders as one of the four numbers behind a shop's forecast.
Forecasting AOV in a spreadsheet
Once revenue is built as orders × AOV, you can plan a price change or a merchandising push by editing one row instead of guessing a revenue total:
| Jan | Feb | Mar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orders | 960 | 1,000 | 1,050 |
| AOV (€) | 50.00 | 50.00 | 55.00 |
| Revenue (€) | 48,000 | 50,000 | 57,750 |
How AOV looks in Foreqast
Foreqast builds revenue the same way, but AOV comes straight from Shopify instead of a cell you maintain. Orders and AOV sit as driver rows underneath revenue, so you can see exactly what is producing the top line — and override AOV for a month when you plan a price change.
| Forecast | Jan 26 | Feb 26 | Mar 26 | Apr 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | €48,000 | €50,000 | €57,750 | €57,750 |
| Shop revenue Σ orders × AOV | €48,000 | €50,000 | €57,750 | €57,750 |
| Orders Shopify | 960 | 1,000 | 1,050 | 1,050 |
| AOV Shopify | €50.00 | €50.00 | €55.00 | €55.00 |
AOV only tells you what an order is worth, not what you keep from it. Pair it with contribution margin to see the cash left after the costs that scale with each order.
See your real AOV drive the forecast
Connect Shopify and Foreqast pulls orders and average order value automatically, then builds your revenue line from them — with a one-click override for any month you plan a change.
Get early access →No credit card required.
Common questions
Is a higher average order value always better?
No. It can rise because you sold fewer, cheaper orders rather than more expensive ones, or because a single large order distorted the period. Read it alongside order count and contribution margin — a rise driven by discounting the entry product is not the win it looks like.
Should average order value be calculated before or after refunds?
After, if you are using it to forecast cash. Gross average order value overstates what you keep, and the gap is exactly your refund rate — which for some categories is large enough to change decisions.