Excel templates · Online shops
Revenue Forecast Template for Online Shops (Excel) — Free
A shop's revenue is never one number: it is traffic, a conversion rate and an average basket, minus the returns. This sheet builds it from those drivers and carries it through to what is left after goods, shipping and ad spend.
The download
Free download
Download: Shop revenue forecast
- Orders derived from sessions and conversion rate
- Gross and net revenue, with the return rate applied
- Cost of goods as a rate, shipping per order
- Contribution margin and ROAS, per month
No email, no sign-up. Formulas already wired up.
The sheet itself
- Orders derived from sessions and conversion rate
- Gross and net revenue, with the return rate applied
- Cost of goods as a rate, shipping per order
- Contribution margin and ROAS, per month
| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shop revenue forecast | |||||||||||||
| 2 | Fill in the blue cells — every other cell is a formula and works itself out. foreqast.app | |||||||||||||
| 3 | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | ||
| 4 | ||||||||||||||
| 5 | 42,000 | 39,000 | 46,000 | 44,000 | 47,000 | 51,000 | 48,000 | 43,000 | 49,000 | 58,000 | 78,000 | 66,000 | ||
| 6 | 2.1 % | 2.1 % | 2.1 % | 2.1 % | 2.1 % | 2.1 % | 2.1 % | 2.1 % | 2.1 % | 2.1 % | 2.1 % | 2.1 % | ||
| 7 | 882 | 819 | 966 | 924 | 987 | 1,071 | 1,008 | 903 | 1,029 | 1,218 | 1,638 | 1,386 | ||
| 8 | ||||||||||||||
| 9 | €58.00 | €58.00 | €60.00 | €58.00 | €59.00 | €59.00 | €60.00 | €60.00 | €58.00 | €59.00 | €61.00 | €62.00 | ||
| 10 | 8.0 % | 8.0 % | 8.0 % | 8.0 % | 8.0 % | 8.0 % | 8.0 % | 8.0 % | 8.0 % | 8.0 % | 8.0 % | 8.0 % | ||
| 11 | €51,156 | €47,502 | €57,960 | €53,592 | €58,233 | €63,189 | €60,480 | €54,180 | €59,682 | €71,862 | €99,918 | €85,932 | ||
| 12 | €47,064 | €43,702 | €53,323 | €49,305 | €53,574 | €58,134 | €55,642 | €49,846 | €54,907 | €66,113 | €91,925 | €79,057 | ||
| 13 | ||||||||||||||
| 14 | 42.0 % | 42.0 % | 42.0 % | 42.0 % | 42.0 % | 42.0 % | 42.0 % | 42.0 % | 42.0 % | 42.0 % | 42.0 % | 42.0 % | ||
| 15 | €19,767 | €18,355 | €22,396 | €20,708 | €22,501 | €24,416 | €23,370 | €20,935 | €23,061 | €27,767 | €38,609 | €33,204 | ||
| 16 | €5.20 | €5.20 | €5.20 | €5.20 | €5.20 | €5.20 | €5.20 | €5.20 | €5.20 | €5.20 | €5.20 | €5.20 | ||
| 17 | €4,586 | €4,259 | €5,023 | €4,805 | €5,132 | €5,569 | €5,242 | €4,696 | €5,351 | €6,334 | €8,518 | €7,207 | ||
| 18 | €5,000 | €5,000 | €6,000 | €6,000 | €6,000 | €7,000 | €7,000 | €6,000 | €6,000 | €8,000 | €12,000 | €9,000 | ||
| 19 | ||||||||||||||
| 20 | €17,711 | €16,088 | €19,904 | €17,792 | €19,941 | €21,149 | €20,030 | €18,215 | €20,495 | €24,012 | €32,798 | €29,646 | ||
| 21 | 9.41× | 8.74× | 8.89× | 8.22× | 8.93× | 8.30× | 7.95× | 8.31× | 9.15× | 8.26× | 7.66× | 8.78× | ||
The blue cells are yours to fill in. Every other cell is a formula and works itself out.
How to use it
- 1
Forecast sessions, not revenue
Traffic is the driver you can actually influence and actually measure. Take the last twelve months from your analytics and apply the seasonality you know.
- 2
Use your own conversion rate, per month
The template holds 2.1% flat. Yours moves: sale periods convert better, cold-traffic campaigns convert worse, and November is not like February.
- 3
Put the return rate where it belongs
It reduces revenue, not costs. An 8% return rate on €60,000 is €4,800 that never was revenue, and every margin below it changes accordingly.
- 4
Read the contribution margin, then the ROAS
ROAS on its own says nothing about whether the month worked. The contribution row does, and the ROAS row tells you which lever moved it.
A worked example
November, the best month of the year
- Sessions
- 78,000
- Net revenue
- €91,885
- Ad spend
- €12,000
- ROAS
- 7.66×
- Contribution margin
- €36,899
November brings 66% more traffic than October and the best contribution of the year. It also ties up €38,600 of goods — bought in September, at a time when the sheet above it says nothing at all. A revenue forecast that stops at the margin line is only half a decision.
The mistakes that break it
Growing sessions and holding the conversion rate
New traffic is usually colder traffic. Doubling spend at a constant conversion rate is the most common way a shop forecast overstates a year.
Forecasting gross revenue and costing net
Mixing the two makes the margin look eight points better than it is, all the way down the sheet.
Leaving payment fees out entirely
Two to three percent of revenue is a whole employee at scale. They are not in this sheet's cost rows — add them to the COGS rate or as their own line.
Where the template stops
Revenue is not the money in your account
Payment providers hold funds for days, marketplaces for weeks, and the stock behind November was paid for in September.
12-month cash-flow planIt treats every product as one average product
One COGS rate across the catalogue hides the SKUs that lose money on every order.
Contribution margin templateIt is only as current as your last evening with it
Every number in here is typed in. The month you skip is the month the sheet quietly stops describing your business — and it never says so.
What comes after the spreadsheet
Monitor marginA margin you recalculate by hand is a margin you find out about late. Foreqast keeps it live as costs and prices move.Calculators